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OverADP: How to Use the War Room

OverADP is an AI-powered fantasy football draft assistant. It uses a machine-learning model trained on NFL seasons since 2014 (play-by-play opportunity, route participation, depth charts, team context and college production), blended 50/50 with ADP, with 80% ranges built from past projection misses. Target Intel uses opportunity-cost draft math that adapts to roster settings, live picks, VBD, ADP, flex paths, and player availability before your next turn. The projection model and daily draft-market refresh are dated separately so you can verify freshness.

Understanding the UI

Player Pool (Left Panel)

Each player row has two action buttons:

• DRAFT: Click to add this player to YOUR team.
• TAKEN: Click to mark this player as drafted by an OPPONENT (removes them from the board).

Column	Meaning
ADP	Average Draft Position: where the market usually selects the player. A lower number means an earlier pick.
VALUE vs ADP	Market ADP minus the live board's estimated draft slot, measured in picks. Estimated slot = current overall pick + BOARD rank − 1. At pick 1, an ADP of 35.7 and BOARD rank #38 equals −2.3 picks. Positive/green means the board would take the player earlier than the market; negative/red means later. It updates with league settings, roster needs, positional scarcity, and live picks.
PROJ	Expected roster contribution for the full season. When a player is expected to miss time, this includes his active-week projection plus realistic fill-in production.
VBD	Value Based Drafting: expected points above replacement after availability, fill-in production, return uncertainty, and bench-slot cost. Higher means more value over a waiver-wire option.
Q / D / O / IR / PUP / SUSP	Color-coded availability badges follow familiar fantasy-football shorthand. Hover over a badge for the current status, return estimate, expected games missed, and availability-adjusted roster value. The pop-up closes as soon as you move away or scroll. No badge means no current availability flag. It does not mean guaranteed health.
RANGE	The model's 80%-target season projection range, shown low–high. It is calibrated across comparable players; it is not an 80% guarantee for one player. Wider ranges mean more uncertainty. Rookie and second-year ranges are widened to reflect their limited history.
UNC	Uncertainty: low / medium / high, based on RANGE width relative to PROJ within the player's position. Low means a tighter range. High means a wider range or a player near replacement level.
DRAFT RISK	Low, medium or high: a draft-value warning that combines RANGE uncertainty, recent injury history, rookie/second-year unknowns, possible ADP overpay, and low VBD at the player's cost. It is not a medical projection.
BYE	Bye week for this player's team. Watch for conflicts with your other starters.

Draft Board Sort

Offensive players (QB/RB/WR/TE) are sorted by an opportunity-cost draft score. VBD and projections measure value, ADP measures price, and the board estimates whether a player is likely to make it back to your next pick. Kickers (K) and Defenses (DEF) are sorted by projected points since they have no meaningful VBD signal.

My Team (Center Panel)

Roster slots are driven by your league configuration (Settings). Players are auto-assigned in priority order:

• QB → QB slot(s), then Superflex (if configured)
• RB → RB1, RB2 (or however many RB slots), then Flex, then Bench
• WR → WR slots, then Flex, then Bench
• TE → TE slot(s), then Flex, then Bench
• K / DEF → their dedicated slots (configurable count)

Bye weeks are shown next to each player. Red = bye conflict with another starter at the same position.

Right Sidebar Panels

Panel	What It Shows
Target Intel	Top recommendations from opportunity-cost draft math, blended with VBD, live roster holes, flex needs, positional scarcity, next-turn availability, and intrinsic player uncertainty. Sleeper/bust and Value vs. ADP labels remain visible as context without being counted again. It schedules DEF and K late, adapts their timing when multiple slots are required, and activates Roster Lock before any pick could make the configured lineup impossible to complete.
Positional Scarcity	Drop-off from elite to replacement level per position. Higher dropoff = position is scarce = draft early.
Bye Conflicts	Warns when multiple starters share a bye week. Critical = no bench coverage. Warning = bench available.
Sleepers & Busts	Compares model rank vs ADP. Sleepers = model ranks higher than market. Busts = market overvalues.
Handcuff Alerts	Backup RBs on the same team as your starting RBs. If your starter goes down, the handcuff takes over.
Opponent Drafts	Tracks what positions opponents are taking, so you can spot position runs.

Key Concepts

VBD (Value Based Drafting)

VBD = Projected Points − Replacement Level Points. The replacement level is the projected points of the last player typically drafted at each position (including bench). This means even bench-worthy players get positive VBD, helping you compare value across all rounds, not just the early ones.

Target Intel

Target Intel is separate from the point-projection model. It asks a draft-specific question: given your roster, league settings, current pick, next pick, ADP price, and the players still available, who is worth taking now?

The recommendation layer is ADP-guarded: ADP remains the price anchor, but the app boosts players with enough VBD, roster need, and scarcity to justify taking them now, especially when the next-turn estimate says they probably will not make it back.

Roster settings matter. No-flex, multi-flex, 2QB, unusual starter counts, and very shallow or deep benches all change the opportunity cost and next-pick math directly.

Positional Scarcity

Measures the drop-off from the elite tier to replacement level at each position. If QB has a small dropoff but TE has a huge one, you should prioritize TE, because the quality falls off a cliff after the top TEs are gone.

How it's calculated: For each position, OverADP finds the projected points of the #1 player (elite) and the projected points of the last starter that would be rostered across all teams (replacement). The difference is the scarcity score.

Scarcity Level	What It Means	Draft Strategy
High Scarcity	Huge gap between elite and replacement	Draft this position early. Waiting means getting a much worse player
Medium Scarcity	Moderate dropoff	Balanced: draft when value aligns with your pick
Low Scarcity	Shallow dropoff, many comparable options	Safe to wait. Replacement-level players are almost as good as "starters"

Example: If the gap from the top available tight end to a replacement-level tight end is much larger than the comparable quarterback gap, tight end is more scarce for your league settings. The live scarcity panel calculates those gaps from the current projections and your roster configuration, so the example never depends on stale player names or point totals.

Projection Range

The 80% range comes from how far past projections at the same position and projection level missed, measured only on earlier seasons. In 2024 and 2025 about 77% of outcomes landed inside it (lower at QB and TE). It is a guide for comparable players, not a guarantee for one player.

Point-Model Accuracy

These are the live board's results (model blended with ADP, half-PPR) for 1,303 player-seasons in 2024 and 2025, each season predicted using only earlier seasons. The pool is players with a prior NFL season or a top-150 draft pick.

Position	MAE	RMSE	R²	Held-Out N
QB	42.93	62.45	0.71	184
RB	31.40	47.85	0.68	328
WR	25.21	38.32	0.67	515
TE	17.99	28.14	0.67	276

When the model and ADP disagree strongly, it flags sleepers (model rank better than ADP) and busts (ADP rank better than model).

Handcuff Alerts

A handcuff is a backup RB on the same NFL team as your starting RB. If your starter gets injured, their backup typically takes over the starting role and inherits most of the carries, which makes them valuable insurance.

Why it matters: If you drafted Saquon Barkley in the 1st round and he goes down in Week 3, his backup (who you can draft in the last round for almost nothing) suddenly becomes a top-15 RB. Without the handcuff, you're scrambling on waivers.

Handcuff Type	Description	Priority
Must Handcuff	Your RB1's backup. Protects your 1st/2nd round investment	High: draft in late rounds
Consider	Your RB2/RB3's backup. Nice insurance but less critical	Medium: if bench space allows
Available	Other backup RBs still on the board	Low: only if you have empty bench slots

Strategy: Draft your stud RB's handcuff with one of your last picks. It's like buying insurance: you hope you never need it, but if you do, it can save your season. The Handcuff Alerts panel shows you which backups are still available for RBs already on your roster.

Model Architecture

OverADP runs one gradient-boosted model across QB, RB, WR and TE (a bag of boosted trees averaged with a games × points-per-game version), chosen after season-by-season tests from 2019 to 2025. Every input is known before Week 1, so a season's outcome never feeds its own prediction.

The board blends that projection 50/50 with ADP-implied points, which tested better than either one alone. Players without real ADP use the model alone.

Model	Role
v6 point model	Gradient-boosted QB/RB/WR/TE projections from public data.
Target Intel	Opportunity-cost next-pick scoring for live draft recommendations.
ADP blend	50/50 average of the model and ADP-implied points.
80% ranges	Built from past projection misses by position and projection level.
K/DEF	Current depth-chart starters ranked for Weeks 1–3 by market-implied scoring, opponent, venue, and a backtested late-round streaming policy.

Key Features (September 2026)

• Current roster overlay: Sleeper roster/depth data keeps teams, bye weeks, and post-draft movement aligned with the board.
• Current availability overlay: injuries, reserve-list designations, practice status, expected returns, and suspensions are refreshed throughout draft season.
• Target / carry competition: Sum of teammate prior-year production on current roster. Captures FA moves and scheme shifts directly.
• College production: Draft capital, combine results, breakout age, and share of team receiving yards and touchdowns in college.
• Games vs. per-game value: Games played and points per game are modeled separately, so a short season is not read as lost talent.
• Route data: Routes run, targets per route and yards per route for pass catchers.
• 80% ranges: About 77% observed coverage in 2024 and 2025; a guide, not an individual guarantee.
• ADP matching: Robust via football_name (handles apostrophes, suffixes, nicknames).

Data Sources

• nflverse: Play-by-play, player stats, rosters, depth charts, snap counts, route participation, draft picks and combine data
• CollegeFootballData.com: College production and recruiting data
• Fantasy Football Calculator: ADP (half-PPR) and bye weeks
• FantasyPros: K and DEF projections (ML is not reliable for these; we use consensus instead)

Accuracy (Walk-Forward Validated)

The model was trained on earlier seasons and tested on the next one. These are the live board's numbers (model blended with ADP) for 2024 and 2025, updated September 2026.

Position	MAE	RMSE	R²	Held-Out N
QB	42.93	62.45	0.71	184
RB	31.40	47.85	0.68	328
WR	25.21	38.32	0.67	515
TE	17.99	28.14	0.67	276
All positions	27.74	43.30	0.68	1,303

The summary MAE and R² are weighted by held-out player count; summary RMSE is pooled from squared position RMSE values. In tests on 2019 to 2025, the model-plus-ADP blend had lower error than ADP alone in 19 of 21 season-format checks; that is historical testing, not a guarantee.

Support

Questions about your account, purchase, or the War Room? Visit OverADP Support or email overadp@gmail.com.