POST-DRAFT REFRESH · APR 2026 — ROOKIES ON REAL TEAMS · CALIBRATED CIs · DEPTH CHART
YOUR DRAFT IS RIGGED.
ADP is a popularity contest dressed up as a projection. Our model explains 9× more variance in actual fantasy points, beats ADP by 37% on mean error, and ships with honest 80% confidence intervals — the only ones that actually contain the truth 80% of the time. Walk-forward validated 2022-2025. Refreshed post-2026 NFL draft. No leakage. No excuses.
OverADP Model
0.57
R² — variance explained (walk-forward 2022-2025)
✓ 9× BETTER
VS
ADP (Market Consensus)
0.06
R² — same metric, same data (walk-forward 2022-2025)
✗ NOISE
Proof
We Called It. ADP Didn't.
Walk-forward validated on the 2025 NFL season. Here's what happened when our model disagreed with ADP consensus.
Walk-forward validated 2022-2025 — we train on the past and test on the future, never the reverse. Our model explains 57% of variance in actual fantasy points. ADP explains 6%. The biggest edges: QB −38% MAE, TE −37%, RB −37%, WR −35%.
Performance Audit
The Full Numbers
Walk-forward validated on 2022-2025 NFL seasons. 540+ players per year. All features strictly lagged to prevent leakage. Retrained April 2026 — post-NFL-draft refresh with depth-chart data and conformal prediction intervals.
| Metric | OverADP | ADP | Delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg R² (variance explained) | 0.57 | 0.06 | 9× better | |
| Avg MAE (points off per player) | 41.5 pts | 65.9 pts | -37% error | |
| 80% CI empirical coverage | 83.5% | — | CQR calibrated | |
| QB MAE edge | -38.1% | R² 0.52 vs 0.00 | ADP is noise at QB | |
| RB MAE edge | -36.9% | R² 0.62 vs 0.12 | crowd misses RBs | |
| WR MAE edge | -34.9% | R² 0.59 vs 0.10 | target-share wins | |
| TE MAE edge | -37.4% | R² 0.56 vs 0.03 | biggest R² lift |
Position Breakdown
We Win At Every Position
ADP is essentially noise at QB (R² 0.00). At every position, our model explains 5–100× more variance than ADP — powered by depth-chart awareness, teammate target competition, and a college pipeline for rookies.
Quarterback
0.52
model R²
ADP R²: 0.00 → −38% MAE
Running Back
0.62
model R²
ADP R²: 0.12 → −37% MAE
Wide Receiver
0.59
model R²
ADP R²: 0.10 → −35% MAE
Tight End
0.56
model R²
ADP R²: 0.03 → −37% MAE
Arsenal
Your Draft Weapons
Calibrated intervals. Depth-chart awareness. College pipeline for rookies. Live draft tracking. No guessing. No reaching.
College/Draft Pipeline
Draft capital, combine athleticism, college production per game, and Power 5 conference flags. The model knows your rookies before they take a snap — college data helps project players with no NFL track record.
Depth Chart & Target Competition
WR1 vs WR3 isn't a footnote — it's the whole story. We pull Week 1 depth chart snapshots from nflverse and overlay live Sleeper rosters so post-2026-draft moves get reflected the same day. We also compute teammate target competition (your QB's pass catchers, your WR's target-share rivals) from prior-season production on the current roster — strictly no leakage.
Value-Based Draft Board
Players ranked by Value Based Drafting — not raw points. Knows when positions are running thin. Draft the right position at the right time.
Sleeper Detection
When our model ranks a player far above their ADP, that's a sleeper. We flag players ADP undervalues — especially at TE and QB where our model has a ~37-38% MAE edge.
Bust Alerts
ADP overvalues name recognition. Our model spots players the market is overpaying for — before you waste a pick on them.
Positional Scarcity
See which positions have the steepest talent cliffs. If TE drops off a cliff after the top 5, you know to grab one early.
Injury-Adjusted Regression
Not every decline is a bust. The model detects injury-driven drops and dampens regression signals — so injured stars get projected for bounce-backs, not collapse.
Conformal 80% Confidence Intervals
Most tools slap an error bar on projections and hope. We use Conformalized Quantile Regression — when we say a player's 80% CI is 110–180 points, the truth actually lands inside that range ~80% of the time, validated on held-out seasons. Know which projections are rock-solid and which are coin flips.
Handcuff Alerts
Automatically finds backup RBs on the same team as your starters. Draft insurance for your 1st-round picks.
Bye Week Conflict Detection
Warns when drafting a player creates a bye week hole in your lineup. Never start a week with an empty roster spot.