2026 BOARD · NEW MODEL + ADP · TARGET INTEL · 824 SKILL-PLAYER PROJECTIONS
KNOW WHO TO DRAFT NEXT. AND WHO CAN WAIT.
ADP tells you who everyone else is drafting. OverADP analyzes player projections, your roster and every live pick, then tells you who to draft next and who can wait. Every projection comes with an 80% range and sits beside current ADP, so you can see where the model and the market disagree.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How we test the model.
Tested On Unseen Seasons
1,303
player-season predictions, 2024 and 2025
✓ TRAIN PAST → TEST FUTURE
Every Projection
80%
target range, shown beside current ADP
✓ UNCERTAINTY INCLUDED
Testing
Tested On Seasons It Hadn't Seen.
The point model is evaluated chronologically: train on earlier seasons, predict the next season, then aggregate every player in both test folds.
The table below reports held-out accuracy for every player in the 2024 and 2025 test seasons. Projections blend the model 50/50 with ADP, the combination that tested best on 2019 to 2025. How it compares with ADP.
Accuracy
The Full Numbers
Live board (model blended with ADP) in the 2024 and 2025 test seasons, for players with a prior NFL season or a top-150 draft pick. Each season was predicted using only earlier seasons. The 2026 board contains 824 QB/RB/WR/TE projections, plus separate K/DEF consensus support in the War Room.
| Metric | MAE | RMSE | R² | Held-Out N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42.93 | 62.45 | 0.71 | 184 |
| Running Back | 31.40 | 47.85 | 0.68 | 328 |
| Wide Receiver | 25.21 | 38.32 | 0.67 | 515 |
| Tight End | 17.99 | 28.14 | 0.67 | 276 |
| All Positions | 27.74 | 43.30 | 0.68 | 1,303 |
Features
Your Draft Weapons
80% ranges. Depth-chart awareness. College context for rookies. Opportunity-cost Target Intel. Live draft tracking.
College Production
Draft capital, combine results, breakout age and share of team receiving yards and touchdowns in college. It gives the model something to work with for rookies who have no NFL track record.
Roster, Depth & Competition
WR1 vs WR3 changes everything. We overlay current Sleeper roster/depth data so post-draft movement gets reflected on the board. We compute teammate target competition from prior-season production on the current roster.
Value-Based Draft Board
Players ranked by Value Based Drafting, not raw points. Knows when positions are running thin. Draft the right position at the right time.
Target Intel Policy
Opportunity-cost math decides when to lean into ADP, VBD, roster needs, flex paths, scarcity, and next-turn availability. In the War Room it updates instantly after every DRAFT, TAKEN, undo, reset, or roster-setting change.
Sleeper Detection
When our model ranks a player far above current ADP, we flag the price gap as a sleeper candidate. It is a disagreement signal, not a guarantee.
Bust Alerts
Flags players going well ahead of their projection, so you can double-check the price before you spend the pick.
Positional Scarcity
See which positions have the steepest talent cliffs. If TE drops off a cliff after the top 5, you know to grab one early.
Games vs. Per-Game Value
Not every decline is a bust. Games played and points per game are modeled separately, so a missed half-season is not automatically read as lost talent.
Route Data
Routes run, targets per route and yards per route show which pass catchers earn looks when they are on the field.
80% Ranges
Each range comes from how far past projections at the same position and level missed. In 2024 and 2025 about 77% of outcomes landed inside the 80% range, so treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Handcuff Alerts
Automatically finds backup RBs on the same team as your starters. Draft insurance for your 1st-round picks.
Bye Week Conflict Detection
Warns when drafting a player creates a bye week hole in your lineup. Helps you avoid an empty lineup spot.