ML ENSEMBLE ONLINE — 4 MODELS ACTIVE
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ADP.
4 ML models trained on 5 years of NFL data. 0.947 correlation with actual fantasy points — crushing ADP's 0.600. That's not opinion. That's math.
OverADP Model
16/20
top players correctly identified
✓ SUPERIOR
VS
ADP (Market Consensus)
7/20
top players correctly identified
✗ BASELINE
Performance Audit
The Numbers Don't Lie
Tested on real 2024 NFL data. 465 players. 4 models. Zero excuses.
| Metric | OverADP | ADP | Delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correlation with actual points | 0.947 | 0.600 | +0.347 (+58%) | |
| R² (variance explained) | 0.870 | — | N/A | |
| Top-20 players hit | 16/20 | 7/20 | +9 players (+129%) | |
| Mean Absolute Error | 13.5 pts | — | N/A | |
| QB correlation | 0.866 | 0.544 | +0.322 | |
| RB correlation | 0.970 | 0.780 | +0.190 | |
| WR correlation | 0.950 | 0.704 | +0.246 | |
| TE correlation | 0.894 | 0.688 | +0.206 |
Position Breakdown
We Win At Every Position
ADP barely beats a coin flip at QB. Our model sees through the noise.
Quarterback
0.866
model correlation
ADP: 0.544 → +59% improvement
Running Back
0.970
model correlation
ADP: 0.780 → +24% improvement
Wide Receiver
0.950
model correlation
ADP: 0.704 → +35% improvement
Tight End
0.894
model correlation
ADP: 0.688 → +30% improvement
Arsenal
Your Draft Weapons
Live draft tracking that tells you exactly who to pick. No guessing. No reaching.
Value-Based Draft Board
Players ranked by Value Based Drafting — not raw points. Knows when positions are running thin. Draft the right position at the right time.
Sleeper Detection
When our model ranks a player far above their ADP, that's a sleeper. We flagged 13 players ADP completely missed in 2024.
Bust Alerts
ADP overvalues name recognition. Our model spots players the market is overpaying for — before you waste a pick on them.
Positional Scarcity
See which positions have the steepest talent cliffs. If TE drops off a cliff after the top 5, you know to grab one early.
Handcuff Alerts
Automatically finds backup RBs on the same team as your starters. Draft insurance for your 1st-round picks.
Bye Week Conflict Detection
Warns when drafting a player creates a bye week hole in your lineup. Never start a week with an empty roster spot.