2026 Fantasy QB Rankings
The top 32 QBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.
Quarterback is where ADP fails hardest — our walk-forward backtest shows ADP R² ≈ 0 for QB (consensus is essentially noise at the position). Our model posts a 38% MAE edge over ADP for QBs.
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj Pts | 80% CI | ADP | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 202.0 | 80–324 | 23 | LOW |
| QB2 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 187.2 | 38–337 | 106 | LOW |
| QB3 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 176.0 | 35–317 | 40 | LOW |
| QB4 | Bo Nix | DEN | 176.0 | 32–320 | 78 | LOW |
| QB5 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 172.9 | 6–340 | 169 | LOW |
| QB6 | Drake Maye | NE | 170.1 | 0–344 | 128 | LOW |
| QB7 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 157.6 | 6–310 | 30 | LOW |
| QB8 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 154.3 | 21–288 | 140 | LOW |
| QB9 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 151.9 | 3–300 | 38 | LOW |
| QB10 | Jordan Love | GB | 145.4 | 10–281 | 131 | LOW |
| QB11 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 145.1 | 0–310 | 104 | LOW |
| QB12 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 142.9 | 0–309 | 60 | LOW |
| QB13 | Brock Purdy | SF | 142.4 | 12–273 | 110 | LOW |
| QB14 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 135.8 | 0–354 | — | MED |
| QB15 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 135.3 | 0–311 | 115 | MED |
| QB16 | Cam Ward | TEN | 130.7 | 0–340 | — | MED |
| QB17 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 128.9 | 0–358 | — | MED |
| QB18 | Jared Goff | DET | 127.0 | 0–275 | 101 | LOW |
| QB19 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 126.5 | 5–248 | 132 | LOW |
| QB20 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 121.0 | 0–286 | 183 | MED |
| QB21 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 118.2 | 0–266 | 24 | MED |
| QB22 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 117.7 | 0–268 | 70 | MED |
| QB23 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 117.3 | 0–269 | 96 | MED |
| QB24 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 107.5 | 0–269 | 154 | MED |
| QB25 | Bryce Young | CAR | 107.0 | 0–236 | 165 | MED |
| QB26 | Spencer Rattler | NO | 93.6 | 0–254 | — | MED |
| QB27 | Kirk Cousins | LV | 91.8 | 0–220 | — | MED |
| QB28 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 88.7 | 0–245 | 175 | MED |
| QB29 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 88.2 | 0–213 | 186 | MED |
| QB30 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 84.4 | 0–208 | 139 | MED |
| QB31 | Justin Fields | KC | 76.7 | 0–175 | 120 | MED |
| QB32 | Malik Willis | MIA | 67.8 | 0–199 | — | MED |
How to read this table
Proj Pts: half-PPR fantasy points our model expects over the full 2026 season. 80% CI: the interval 80% of actual outcomes should fall inside, based on 2025 calibration. A wide CI means more uncertainty — injury-prone players and rookies have wider intervals. ADP: half-PPR consensus average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator. Risk: relative coefficient of variation (CI width / projection) bucketed into position quartiles.
What the model gets right that ADP misses
ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 6% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 57% — roughly 9× more variance explained.
The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.
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