2026 Fantasy QB Rankings
The top 32 QBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by projected fantasy points. Each projection includes a split-conformal range targeting 80% marginal coverage, calibrated on held-out 2025 rows. A target range is not a guarantee for an individual player.
These rankings order 2026 QBs by OverADP's position-specific point model, then show current ADP and uncertainty beside every player. Use the projection as an independent estimate, the range as risk context, and ADP as market price—not as three interchangeable rankings.
Quarterback scoring has a wider absolute error scale than the other positions, so the model is trained and reported separately. Across the 2024-2025 test folds, QB posted 57.15 MAE and 0.61 R² over 134 player-season predictions.
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj Pts | 80% CI | ADP | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 280.1 | 159–402 | 33 | LOW |
| QB2 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 279.2 | 164–394 | 134 | LOW |
| QB3 | Jared Goff | DET | 273.8 | 162–386 | 100 | LOW |
| QB4 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 264.0 | 155–373 | 149 | LOW |
| QB5 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 263.7 | 142–386 | 80 | LOW |
| QB6 | Bo Nix | DEN | 262.7 | 188–337 | 112 | LOW |
| QB7 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 255.5 | 160–351 | 92 | LOW |
| QB8 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 255.0 | 161–349 | 55 | LOW |
| QB9 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 252.4 | 142–362 | 108 | LOW |
| QB10 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 251.9 | 132–372 | 57 | LOW |
| QB11 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 244.0 | 178–310 | 75 | LOW |
| QB12 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 243.2 | 119–368 | 102 | MED |
| QB13 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 232.7 | 136–329 | — | LOW |
| QB14 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 230.7 | 151–310 | 92 | LOW |
| QB15 | Jordan Love | GB | 227.9 | 124–332 | 153 | LOW |
| QB16 | Drake Maye | NE | 221.6 | 116–327 | 51 | LOW |
| QB17 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 213.5 | 75–352 | 120 | MED |
| QB18 | Brock Purdy | SF | 211.9 | 110–313 | 90 | LOW |
| QB19 | Bryce Young | CAR | 199.9 | 93–306 | — | MED |
| QB20 | Fernando Mendoza | LV | 198.4 | 0–482 | — | HIGH |
| QB21 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 195.8 | 94–297 | 162 | MED |
| QB22 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 193.7 | 72–315 | — | MED |
| QB23 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 192.2 | 98–287 | 66 | MED |
| QB24 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 191.7 | 97–287 | — | MED |
| QB25 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 191.2 | 92–290 | 72 | MED |
| QB26 | Cam Ward | TEN | 181.8 | 66–298 | 165 | MED |
| QB27 | Tyler Shough | NO | 171.4 | 30–313 | 139 | MED |
| QB28 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 166.7 | 21–312 | — | MED |
| QB29 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 153.0 | 40–266 | — | MED |
| QB30 | Malik Willis | MIA | 142.5 | 38–247 | 165 | MED |
| QB31 | Justin Fields | KC | 112.8 | 39–186 | — | MED |
| QB32 | Sam Howell | DAL | 103.3 | 28–178 | — | MED |
How to read this table
Proj Pts: half-PPR fantasy points the point model estimates over the full 2026 season. 80% CI: a split-conformal range with an 80% marginal-coverage target, calibrated on 2025 rows. A wide range means more uncertainty. ADP: current half-PPR average draft position. Risk: relative interval width bucketed within position.
How the results were measured
The point model was trained only on earlier seasons and evaluated on the next season. The published metrics aggregate every eligible player row from the 2024 and 2025 test folds. An exact-cohort ADP-only check is directionally positive, but we withhold a market-beating percentage because the 2025 input is a preseason-rank proxy rather than true ADP.
The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.
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