2026 Fantasy QB Rankings

The top 32 QBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Quarterback is where ADP fails hardest — our walk-forward backtest shows ADP R² ≈ 0 for QB (consensus is essentially noise at the position). Our model posts a 34% MAE edge over ADP for QBs.

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
QB1	Josh Allen	BUF	198.8	88–310	23	LOW
QB2	Caleb Williams	CHI	193.2	16–371	106	MED
QB3	Drake Maye	NE	176.0	0–362	128	MED
QB4	Jalen Hurts	PHI	174.5	64–285	40	LOW
QB5	Matthew Stafford	LA	172.4	0–358	169	MED
QB6	Bo Nix	DEN	172.1	9–335	78	MED
QB7	Jordan Love	GB	154.8	32–278	131	LOW
QB8	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	154.8	34–275	140	LOW
QB9	Joe Burrow	CIN	151.6	54–249	38	LOW
QB10	Justin Herbert	LAC	145.9	0–294	115	MED
QB11	Patrick Mahomes	KC	145.3	25–266	60	LOW
QB12	Brock Purdy	SF	143.2	30–257	110	LOW
QB13	Jayden Daniels	WAS	140.9	13–269	30	MED
QB14	Dak Prescott	DAL	138.1	0–277	104	MED
QB15	Jared Goff	DET	135.3	19–252	101	MED
QB16	C.J. Stroud	HOU	134.5	21–248	132	LOW
QB17	Baker Mayfield	TB	131.2	19–243	70	LOW
QB18	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	123.0	8–238	154	MED
QB19	Lamar Jackson	BAL	121.8	0–244	24	MED
QB20	Kyler Murray	ARI	120.4	0–252	96	MED
QB21	Sam Darnold	SEA	116.7	0–261	183	MED
QB22	Bryce Young	CAR	115.8	0–239	165	MED
QB23	Justin Fields	NYJ	115.1	3–227	120	MED
QB24	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	94.5	0–203	186	MED
QB25	J.J. McCarthy	MIN	86.9	0–222	139	HIGH
QB26	Geno Smith	LV	80.2	0–191	175	MED
QB27	Daniel Jones	IND	78.1	0–224	—	HIGH
QB28	Jaxson Dart	NYG	74.8	0–262	—	HIGH
QB29	Cam Ward	TEN	71.2	0–236	—	HIGH
QB30	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	69.4	0–206	164	HIGH
QB31	Mac Jones	SF	65.3	0–198	—	HIGH
QB32	Gardner Minshew	KC	63.9	0–186	—	HIGH

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 9% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 59% — a 7× improvement.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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