2026 Fantasy QB Rankings
The top 32 QBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by projected fantasy points. Each projection includes an 80% range built from how far past projections missed. A target range is not a guarantee for an individual player.
These rankings order 2026 QBs by OverADP's projection (model blended with ADP), then show current ADP and uncertainty beside every player. Use the projection as an independent estimate, the range as risk context, and ADP as market price, not as three interchangeable rankings.
Quarterback scoring has a wider absolute error scale than the other positions, so the model is trained and reported separately. Across the 2024-2025 test folds, QB posted 42.93 MAE and 0.71 R² over 184 player-season predictions.
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj Pts | 80% CI | ADP | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 305.2 | 204–413 | 33 | LOW |
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 276.9 | 176–384 | 56 | LOW |
| QB3 | Drake Maye | NE | 273.7 | 173–381 | 51 | LOW |
| QB4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 267.6 | 167–375 | 82 | LOW |
| QB5 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 264.7 | 164–372 | 58 | LOW |
| QB6 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 262.0 | 161–370 | 92 | LOW |
| QB7 | Jared Goff | DET | 257.0 | 156–365 | 100 | LOW |
| QB8 | Bo Nix | DEN | 255.9 | 155–364 | 113 | LOW |
| QB9 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 252.8 | 152–360 | 73 | LOW |
| QB10 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 249.4 | 148–357 | 103 | LOW |
| QB11 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 248.7 | 148–356 | 135 | LOW |
| QB12 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 246.2 | 145–354 | 90 | MED |
| QB13 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 245.1 | 144–353 | 108 | MED |
| QB14 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 244.5 | 144–352 | 64 | MED |
| QB15 | Brock Purdy | SF | 239.9 | 139–348 | 88 | MED |
| QB16 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 236.3 | 135–344 | 75 | MED |
| QB17 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 234.6 | 134–342 | 119 | MED |
| QB18 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 218.4 | 118–326 | 136 | MED |
| QB19 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 218.3 | 117–326 | 145 | MED |
| QB20 | Jordan Love | GB | 211.8 | 111–319 | 154 | MED |
| QB21 | Daniel Jones | IND | 208.5 | 108–316 | 165 | MED |
| QB22 | Cam Ward | TEN | 205.6 | 105–313 | 164 | MED |
| QB23 | Bryce Young | CAR | 204.3 | 103–312 | 174 | MED |
| QB24 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 204.2 | 103–312 | 158 | MED |
| QB25 | Tyler Shough | NO | 199.7 | 99–307 | 140 | MED |
| QB26 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 185.6 | 85–293 | - | MED |
| QB27 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 182.1 | 81–290 | - | MED |
| QB28 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 178.7 | 84–306 | - | MED |
| QB29 | Fernando Mendoza | LV | 173.8 | 79–301 | 150 | MED |
| QB30 | Malik Willis | MIA | 171.4 | 77–299 | 164 | MED |
| QB31 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 152.5 | 58–280 | - | MED |
| QB32 | Kirk Cousins | LV | 147.2 | 53–275 | - | HIGH |
How to read this table
Proj Pts: half-PPR fantasy points the point model estimates over the full 2026 season. 80% CI: the range that past projections at this level hit about 80% of the time. A wide range means more uncertainty. ADP: current half-PPR average draft position. Risk: relative interval width bucketed within position.
How the results were measured
The point model was trained only on earlier seasons and evaluated on the next season. The published metrics aggregate every eligible player row from the 2024 and 2025 test folds. Projections blend the model 50/50 with ADP-implied points, the combination that tested best on 2019 to 2025, and are shown next to current ADP.
The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.
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