2026 Fantasy TE Rankings

The top 24 TEs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Tight end is the highest-variance fantasy position. Most years, a handful of TEs produce and the rest are streamers. Our model cuts TE MAE by 39% vs ADP — and the TE R² lift is the largest of any position (0.60 vs 0.03).

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
TE1	Trey McBride	ARI	136.1	39–233	26	LOW
TE2	Brock Bowers	LV	107.1	45–169	18	LOW
TE3	Tucker Kraft	GB	85.3	16–154	108	LOW
TE4	Travis Kelce	KC	83.1	41–125	70	LOW
TE5	George Kittle	SF	82.0	24–140	39	LOW
TE6	Jonnu Smith	PIT	81.3	19–143	118	LOW
TE7	Kyle Pitts	ATL	79.2	6–152	140	MED
TE8	Jake Ferguson	DAL	77.7	41–115	124	LOW
TE9	Sam LaPorta	DET	75.0	24–126	58	LOW
TE10	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	73.0	12–134	127	LOW
TE11	Hunter Henry	NE	72.7	0–146	154	MED
TE12	Zach Ertz	WAS	71.7	15–128	164	LOW
TE13	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	71.4	12–130	68	LOW
TE14	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	66.0	26–106	—	LOW
TE15	Dallas Goedert	PHI	65.8	1–131	142	MED
TE16	Tyler Warren	IND	64.1	0–168	96	MED
TE17	Colston Loveland	CHI	63.8	0–169	116	MED
TE18	Mark Andrews	BAL	62.5	10–115	88	MED
TE19	Cade Otton	TB	57.5	15–100	186	LOW
TE20	Juwan Johnson	NO	55.8	0–118	—	MED
TE21	Evan Engram	DEN	55.1	2–109	91	MED
TE22	Dalton Schultz	HOU	54.3	0–116	—	MED
TE23	Chig Okonkwo	TEN	51.0	0–113	—	MED
TE24	AJ Barner	SEA	50.8	0–124	—	MED

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 9% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 59% — a 7× improvement.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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