2026 Fantasy TE Rankings
The top 24 TEs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.
Tight end is the highest-variance fantasy position. Most years, a handful of TEs produce and the rest are streamers. Our model cuts TE MAE by 37% vs ADP — and the TE R² lift is one of the largest of any position (0.56 vs 0.03, a 20× improvement).
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj Pts | 80% CI | ADP | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 | Trey McBride | ARI | 130.8 | 49–212 | 26 | LOW |
| TE2 | Brock Bowers | LV | 93.6 | 27–160 | 18 | LOW |
| TE3 | Travis Kelce | KC | 89.1 | 46–132 | 70 | LOW |
| TE4 | George Kittle | SF | 88.5 | 40–137 | 39 | LOW |
| TE5 | Jonnu Smith | PIT | 79.9 | 25–135 | 118 | LOW |
| TE6 | Tucker Kraft | GB | 75.2 | 22–128 | 108 | LOW |
| TE7 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 73.9 | 25–122 | 127 | LOW |
| TE8 | Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | 73.9 | 0–183 | 0 | MED |
| TE9 | Zach Ertz | WAS | 73.2 | 29–118 | 164 | LOW |
| TE10 | Hunter Henry | NE | 72.4 | 1–143 | 154 | LOW |
| TE11 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | 71.7 | 16–128 | 140 | LOW |
| TE12 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 69.1 | 28–110 | 88 | LOW |
| TE13 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 66.1 | 0–134 | 142 | LOW |
| TE14 | Sam LaPorta | DET | 65.3 | 17–113 | 58 | LOW |
| TE15 | Colston Loveland | CHI | 63.9 | 0–166 | 116 | MED |
| TE16 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | 63.8 | 40–87 | 124 | LOW |
| TE17 | Tyler Warren | IND | 62.9 | 0–161 | 96 | MED |
| TE18 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 59.1 | 5–113 | 68 | LOW |
| TE19 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 58.0 | 17–99 | — | LOW |
| TE20 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | 58.0 | 7–109 | — | LOW |
| TE21 | Quentin Moore | WAS | 57.9 | 0–164 | 0 | MED |
| TE22 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | 57.4 | 4–110 | — | LOW |
| TE23 | Evan Engram | DEN | 56.7 | 5–108 | 91 | LOW |
| TE24 | Juwan Johnson | NO | 54.8 | 0–115 | — | MED |
How to read this table
Proj Pts: half-PPR fantasy points our model expects over the full 2026 season. 80% CI: the interval 80% of actual outcomes should fall inside, based on 2025 calibration. A wide CI means more uncertainty — injury-prone players and rookies have wider intervals. ADP: half-PPR consensus average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator. Risk: relative coefficient of variation (CI width / projection) bucketed into position quartiles.
What the model gets right that ADP misses
ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 6% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 57% — roughly 9× more variance explained.
The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.
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