2026 Fantasy WR Rankings

The top 60 WRs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Wide receiver projections live or die on target share and teammate competition. We explicitly encode prior-season teammate targets so when a star signs elsewhere, our model sees it. 33% MAE edge over ADP.

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
WR1	Puka Nacua	LA	192.8	64–322	12	LOW
WR2	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	186.0	146–226	1	LOW
WR3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	156.8	49–265	30	LOW
WR4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	151.8	99–205	9	LOW
WR5	Terry McLaurin	WAS	141.9	70–213	36	LOW
WR6	Drake London	ATL	141.5	61–222	18	LOW
WR7	Nico Collins	HOU	140.7	67–214	12	LOW
WR8	Courtland Sutton	DEN	137.3	69–206	50	LOW
WR9	A.J. Brown	PHI	124.9	68–182	22	LOW
WR10	DK Metcalf	PIT	123.4	52–195	51	LOW
WR11	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	122.7	54–191	6	LOW
WR12	Davante Adams	LA	122.5	49–196	42	LOW
WR13	Justin Jefferson	MIN	121.6	65–178	5	LOW
WR14	Tee Higgins	CIN	121.4	64–179	34	LOW
WR15	George Pickens	DAL	115.5	37–194	62	LOW
WR16	Chris Olave	NO	115.2	34–196	72	LOW
WR17	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	111.2	36–186	68	LOW
WR18	Jameson Williams	DET	109.0	51–167	59	LOW
WR19	Zay Flowers	BAL	106.4	29–184	61	MED
WR20	Khalil Shakir	BUF	106.3	44–168	92	LOW
WR21	DJ Moore	CHI	103.7	27–181	50	MED
WR22	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	103.4	29–178	40	MED
WR23	Ladd McConkey	LAC	103.3	29–177	26	MED
WR24	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	103.1	22–184	38	MED
WR25	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	100.9	1–201	56	MED
WR26	Jauan Jennings	SF	99.7	42–157	102	LOW
WR27	DeVonta Smith	PHI	99.7	51–148	56	LOW
WR28	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	97.7	32–164	72	LOW
WR29	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WAS	97.5	40–155	86	LOW
WR30	Malik Nabers	NYG	96.5	24–169	9	MED
WR31	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	93.0	19–167	14	MED
WR32	Rome Odunze	CHI	90.3	17–164	80	MED
WR33	Calvin Ridley	TEN	89.7	9–171	68	MED
WR34	Michael Pittman	IND	88.0	21–156	110	MED
WR35	Mike Evans	TB	87.4	22–153	42	MED
WR36	Cooper Kupp	SEA	84.7	28–142	90	LOW
WR37	Stefon Diggs	NE	82.2	18–146	89	MED
WR38	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	80.7	2–159	182	MED
WR39	Alec Pierce	IND	78.5	0–159	—	MED
WR40	Darnell Mooney	ATL	78.4	23–134	120	LOW
WR41	Rashee Rice	KC	77.7	28–128	62	LOW
WR42	Emeka Egbuka	TB	74.1	0–170	94	HIGH
WR43	Romeo Doubs	GB	73.7	0–156	190	MED
WR44	Jordan Addison	MIN	72.0	7–137	84	MED
WR45	Quentin Johnston	LAC	70.9	0–145	—	MED
WR46	Travis Hunter	JAX	70.9	0–155	70	MED
WR47	Chris Godwin Jr.	TB	70.1	9–131	93	MED
WR48	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	69.9	4–136	90	MED
WR49	Keenan Allen	LAC	69.8	18–121	156	MED
WR50	DeMario Douglas	NE	68.7	12–126	193	MED
WR51	Xavier Worthy	KC	66.3	0–139	56	MED
WR52	Keon Coleman	BUF	64.2	1–127	116	MED
WR53	Josh Downs	IND	64.0	2–126	113	MED
WR54	Ricky Pearsall	SF	63.8	0–132	84	MED
WR55	Tre Tucker	LV	63.5	0–139	—	MED
WR56	Rashod Bateman	BAL	63.2	10–116	172	MED
WR57	Demarcus Robinson	SF	61.3	6–117	—	MED
WR58	Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	60.0	0–122	132	MED
WR59	Tyreek Hill	MIA	59.0	0–129	30	MED
WR60	Christian Watson	GB	57.3	2–112	—	MED

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 9% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 59% — a 7× improvement.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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