▼ 2026 Busts
2026 Fantasy Busts — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our machine-learning model ranks well below consensus ADP. These are picks we think you should avoid at their current draft cost — the largest negative model-vs-crowd gaps.
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 2025 hit rate: Drake Maye ADP 128 → QB#2
🔄 Updated: April 29, 2026
The Top 15
Tyreek Hill
WR · MIA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #145
ADP rank: #30
Projected pts: 49.9
Gap vs ADP: -115
Model rank #145 vs ADP #30.0 — BUST
Kaleb Johnson
RB · PIT · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #172
ADP rank: #78
Projected pts: 21.6
Gap vs ADP: -93
Model rank #172 vs ADP #78.0 — BUST
James Conner
RB · ARI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #134
ADP rank: #49
Projected pts: 54.5
Gap vs ADP: -85
Model rank #134 vs ADP #50.0 — BUST
Mike Evans
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #109
ADP rank: #41
Projected pts: 68.9
Gap vs ADP: -67
Model rank #109 vs ADP #42.0 — BUST
DK Metcalf
WR · PIT · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #117
ADP rank: #51
Projected pts: 64.8
Gap vs ADP: -66
Model rank #117 vs ADP #51.0 — BUST
Alvin Kamara
RB · NO · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #102
ADP rank: #38
Projected pts: 70.9
Gap vs ADP: -63
Model rank #102 vs ADP #38.0 — BUST
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #70
ADP rank: #9
Projected pts: 90.4
Gap vs ADP: -61
Model rank #70 vs ADP #9.0 — BUST
A.J. Brown
WR · PHI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #81
ADP rank: #22
Projected pts: 83.1
Gap vs ADP: -59
Model rank #81 vs ADP #22.0 — BUST
T.J. Hockenson
TE · MIN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #126
ADP rank: #68
Projected pts: 59.8
Gap vs ADP: -58
Model rank #126 vs ADP #68.0 — BUST
Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #121
ADP rank: #63
Projected pts: 63.3
Gap vs ADP: -57
Model rank #121 vs ADP #64.0 — BUST
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR · WAS · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #142
ADP rank: #85
Projected pts: 51.4
Gap vs ADP: -56
Model rank #142 vs ADP #86.0 — BUST
Najee Harris
RB · LAC · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #157
ADP rank: #104
Projected pts: 38.9
Gap vs ADP: -53
Model rank #157 vs ADP #104.0 — BUST
Ricky Pearsall
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #133
ADP rank: #83
Projected pts: 55.6
Gap vs ADP: -49
Model rank #133 vs ADP #84.0 — BUST
Sam LaPorta
TE · DET · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #107
ADP rank: #58
Projected pts: 69.4
Gap vs ADP: -49
Model rank #107 vs ADP #58.0 — BUST
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #140
ADP rank: #93
Projected pts: 52.5
Gap vs ADP: -47
Model rank #140 vs ADP #93.0 — BUST
Why trust these calls?
In 2025 walk-forward testing, the model flagged Brian Thomas Jr. as a bust — he was going ADP #13 (WR6-ish consensus) and our model had him overall #41. He finished the season at overall rank #102 with 124 points across 15 games played — a real, non-injury bust. It also correctly flagged Bucky Irving (ADP #16 → actual RB#40) and flagged Isiah Pacheco (ADP #58 → actual RB#41). Busts are harder to call than sleepers because injuries dominate the worst outcomes — but model-flagged busts consistently underperformed even when healthy.
Methodology is public — walk-forward validation, conformal quantile regression for calibrated 80% intervals, depth-chart aware, no leakage. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
Related Rankings
The Draft Tool
Get the Full Model in Your Draft Room
Every projection, 80% confidence interval, risk tier, and sleeper/bust call — live, in a single-page draft command center. Free to browse. $6.99 for a single draft, $24.99 for the full season.
ENTER THE WAR ROOM →