▼ 2026 Busts
2026 Fantasy Busts — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our machine-learning model ranks well below consensus ADP. These are picks we think you should avoid at their current draft cost — the largest negative model-vs-crowd gaps.
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 2025 hit rate: Drake Maye ADP 128 → QB#2
🔄 Updated: April 17, 2026
The Top 15
Tyreek Hill
WR · MIA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #142
ADP rank: #30
Projected pts: 59.0
Gap vs ADP: -112
Model rank #142 vs ADP #30.0 — BUST
Kaleb Johnson
RB · PIT · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #175
ADP rank: #78
Projected pts: 20.9
Gap vs ADP: -96
Model rank #175 vs ADP #78.0 — BUST
James Conner
RB · ARI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #134
ADP rank: #49
Projected pts: 63.3
Gap vs ADP: -84
Model rank #134 vs ADP #50.0 — BUST
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR · JAX · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #84
ADP rank: #13
Projected pts: 93.0
Gap vs ADP: -70
Model rank #84 vs ADP #14.0 — BUST
Xavier Worthy
WR · KC · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #127
ADP rank: #56
Projected pts: 66.3
Gap vs ADP: -70
Model rank #127 vs ADP #56.0 — BUST
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #77
ADP rank: #9
Projected pts: 96.5
Gap vs ADP: -68
Model rank #77 vs ADP #9.0 — BUST
Matthew Golden
WR · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #157
ADP rank: #89
Projected pts: 43.7
Gap vs ADP: -67
Model rank #157 vs ADP #90.0 — BUST
Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #124
ADP rank: #63
Projected pts: 68.0
Gap vs ADP: -60
Model rank #124 vs ADP #64.0 — BUST
George Kittle
TE · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #95
ADP rank: #39
Projected pts: 82.0
Gap vs ADP: -56
Model rank #95 vs ADP #39.0 — BUST
Evan Engram
TE · DEN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #145
ADP rank: #91
Projected pts: 55.1
Gap vs ADP: -54
Model rank #145 vs ADP #91.0 — BUST
Jayden Reed
WR · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #161
ADP rank: #108
Projected pts: 34.6
Gap vs ADP: -53
Model rank #161 vs ADP #108.0 — BUST
David Njoku
TE · CLE · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #152
ADP rank: #99
Projected pts: 48.9
Gap vs ADP: -52
Model rank #152 vs ADP #100.0 — BUST
Mark Andrews
TE · BAL · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #137
ADP rank: #87
Projected pts: 62.5
Gap vs ADP: -49
Model rank #137 vs ADP #88.0 — BUST
Ricky Pearsall
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #132
ADP rank: #83
Projected pts: 63.8
Gap vs ADP: -49
Model rank #132 vs ADP #84.0 — BUST
Mike Evans
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: #89
ADP rank: #41
Projected pts: 87.4
Gap vs ADP: -47
Model rank #89 vs ADP #42.0 — BUST
Why trust these calls?
In 2025 walk-forward testing, the model flagged Brian Thomas Jr. as a bust — he was going ADP #13 (WR6-ish consensus) and our model had him overall #41. He finished the season at overall rank #102 with 124 points across 15 games played — a real, non-injury bust. It also correctly flagged Bucky Irving (ADP #16 → actual RB#40) and flagged Isiah Pacheco (ADP #58 → actual RB#41). Busts are harder to call than sleepers because injuries dominate the worst outcomes — but model-flagged busts consistently underperformed even when healthy.
Methodology is public — walk-forward validation, conformal quantile regression for calibrated 80% intervals, depth-chart aware, no leakage. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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