▼ 2026 Busts
2026 Fantasy Busts — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our model ranks below current ADP. These are prices to question, not declarations that a player will fail.
Quick answerA 2026 bust candidate is a player whose current ADP is materially earlier than the OverADP model rank. That means the market price looks aggressive relative to the projection; it does not mean the player is certain to fail or should never be drafted.
By OverADP ResearchUpdated August 27, 2026Half-PPR
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 Signal: current model rank vs current ADP
🔄 Updated: August 27, 2026
The Top 15
Terry McLaurin
WR · WAS · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR60
ADP rank: WR23
Projected pts: 58.1
Gap vs ADP: −37 spots
Model WR60 · ADP WR23 (overvalued by 37 spots)
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB49
ADP rank: RB23
Projected pts: 55.5
Gap vs ADP: −26 spots
Model RB49 · ADP RB23 (overvalued by 26 spots)
Jeremiyah Love
RB · ARI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB38
ADP rank: RB15
Projected pts: 86.4
Gap vs ADP: −23 spots
Model RB38 · ADP RB15 (overvalued by 23 spots)
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR61
ADP rank: WR38
Projected pts: 56.8
Gap vs ADP: −23 spots
Model WR61 · ADP WR38 (overvalued by 23 spots)
Mike Evans
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR49
ADP rank: WR27
Projected pts: 87.5
Gap vs ADP: −22 spots
Model WR49 · ADP WR27 (overvalued by 22 spots)
Jadarian Price
RB · SEA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB50
ADP rank: RB29
Projected pts: 53.2
Gap vs ADP: −21 spots
Model RB50 · ADP RB29 (overvalued by 21 spots)
Carnell Tate
WR · TEN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR58
ADP rank: WR37
Projected pts: 59.7
Gap vs ADP: −21 spots
Model WR58 · ADP WR37 (overvalued by 21 spots)
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR32
ADP rank: WR14
Projected pts: 114.3
Gap vs ADP: −18 spots
Model WR32 · ADP WR14 (overvalued by 18 spots)
Tee Higgins
WR · CIN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR34
ADP rank: WR19
Projected pts: 112.5
Gap vs ADP: −15 spots
Model WR34 · ADP WR19 (overvalued by 15 spots)
Matthew Golden
WR · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR64
ADP rank: WR49
Projected pts: 51.7
Gap vs ADP: −15 spots
Model WR64 · ADP WR49 (overvalued by 15 spots)
Dak Prescott
QB · DAL · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB19
ADP rank: QB5
Projected pts: 192.2
Gap vs ADP: −14 spots
Model QB19 · ADP QB5 (overvalued by 14 spots)
Jayden Daniels
QB · WAS · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB20
ADP rank: QB6
Projected pts: 191.2
Gap vs ADP: −14 spots
Model QB20 · ADP QB6 (overvalued by 14 spots)
Jalen McMillan
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR70
ADP rank: WR56
Projected pts: 40.0
Gap vs ADP: −14 spots
Model WR70 · ADP WR56 (overvalued by 14 spots)
Drake Maye
QB · NE · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB15
ADP rank: QB2
Projected pts: 221.6
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model QB15 · ADP QB2 (overvalued by 13 spots)
DJ Moore
WR · BUF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR37
ADP rank: WR24
Projected pts: 109.9
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model WR37 · ADP WR24 (overvalued by 13 spots)
What this signal means
A bust label measures a current rank gap: the market price is richer than the model's production rank. That can reflect role competition, prior volume, age, depth context, or simply an aggressive draft price. It is not an injury forecast or a certainty — use the projection range and current team news before making a pick.
Methodology is public — chronological point-model tests, split-conformal 80%-target ranges, and current depth-chart context. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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