▼ 2026 Busts
2026 Fantasy Busts: Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our model ranks below current ADP. These are prices to question, not declarations that a player will fail.
Quick answerA 2026 bust candidate is a player whose current ADP is materially earlier than the OverADP model rank. That means the market price looks aggressive relative to the projection; it does not mean the player is certain to fail or should never be drafted.
By OverADP ResearchUpdated September 23, 2026Half-PPR
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 Signal: current model rank vs current ADP
🔄 Updated: September 23, 2026
The Top 15
Josh Jacobs
RB · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB34
ADP rank: RB13
Projected pts: 113.2
Gap vs ADP: −21 spots
Model RB34 · ADP RB13 (model ranks him 21 spots lower)
Jalen McMillan
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR79
ADP rank: WR59
Projected pts: 66.0
Gap vs ADP: −20 spots
Model WR79 · ADP WR59 (model ranks him 20 spots lower)
Matthew Golden
WR · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR65
ADP rank: WR49
Projected pts: 87.2
Gap vs ADP: −16 spots
Model WR65 · ADP WR49 (model ranks him 16 spots lower)
Cyrus Allen
WR · KC · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR80
ADP rank: WR65
Projected pts: 63.9
Gap vs ADP: −15 spots
Model WR80 · ADP WR65 (model ranks him 15 spots lower)
Zach Charbonnet
RB · SEA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB56
ADP rank: RB42
Projected pts: 71.4
Gap vs ADP: −14 spots
Model RB56 · ADP RB42 (model ranks him 14 spots lower)
Calvin Ridley
WR · TEN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR76
ADP rank: WR62
Projected pts: 74.4
Gap vs ADP: −14 spots
Model WR76 · ADP WR62 (model ranks him 14 spots lower)
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR51
ADP rank: WR38
Projected pts: 106.7
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model WR51 · ADP WR38 (model ranks him 13 spots lower)
Jakobi Meyers
WR · JAX · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR54
ADP rank: WR41
Projected pts: 102.2
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model WR54 · ADP WR41 (model ranks him 13 spots lower)
Jonathon Brooks
RB · CAR · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB44
ADP rank: RB33
Projected pts: 89.1
Gap vs ADP: −11 spots
Model RB44 · ADP RB33 (model ranks him 11 spots lower)
Terry McLaurin
WR · WAS · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR33
ADP rank: WR23
Projected pts: 129.8
Gap vs ADP: −10 spots
Model WR33 · ADP WR23 (model ranks him 10 spots lower)
Tank Dell
WR · HOU · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR81
ADP rank: WR71
Projected pts: 60.2
Gap vs ADP: −10 spots
Model WR81 · ADP WR71 (model ranks him 10 spots lower)
Dak Prescott
QB · DAL · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB14
ADP rank: QB5
Projected pts: 244.5
Gap vs ADP: −9 spots
Model QB14 · ADP QB5 (model ranks him 9 spots lower)
Matthew Stafford
QB · LA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB16
ADP rank: QB7
Projected pts: 236.3
Gap vs ADP: −9 spots
Model QB16 · ADP QB7 (model ranks him 9 spots lower)
Jayden Reed
WR · GB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR52
ADP rank: WR43
Projected pts: 106.5
Gap vs ADP: −9 spots
Model WR52 · ADP WR43 (model ranks him 9 spots lower)
Isiah Pacheco
RB · DET · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB59
ADP rank: RB50
Projected pts: 53.6
Gap vs ADP: −9 spots
Model RB59 · ADP RB50 (model ranks him 9 spots lower)
What this signal means
A bust label measures a current rank gap: the market price is richer than the model's production rank. That can reflect role competition, prior volume, age, depth context, or simply an aggressive draft price. It is not an injury forecast or a certainty. Use the projection range and current team news before making a pick.
Methodology is public: season-by-season tests, 80% ranges, and current depth-chart context. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank: they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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