▼ 2026 Busts
2026 Fantasy Busts — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our machine-learning model ranks well below consensus ADP. These are picks we think you should avoid at their current draft cost — the largest negative model-vs-crowd gaps.
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 2025 hit rate: Drake Maye ADP 128 → QB#2
🔄 Updated: April 30, 2026
The Top 15
Tyreek Hill
WR · MIA · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR55
ADP rank: WR12
Projected pts: 55.1
Gap vs ADP: −43 spots
Model WR55 · ADP WR12 (overvalued by 43 spots)
Ricky Pearsall
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR58
ADP rank: WR35
Projected pts: 53.6
Gap vs ADP: −23 spots
Model WR58 · ADP WR35 (overvalued by 23 spots)
A.J. Brown
WR · PHI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR32
ADP rank: WR10
Projected pts: 84.4
Gap vs ADP: −22 spots
Model WR32 · ADP WR10 (overvalued by 22 spots)
James Conner
RB · ARI · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB41
ADP rank: RB19
Projected pts: 58.1
Gap vs ADP: −22 spots
Model RB41 · ADP RB19 (overvalued by 22 spots)
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR25
ADP rank: WR4
Projected pts: 92.7
Gap vs ADP: −21 spots
Model WR25 · ADP WR4 (overvalued by 21 spots)
DK Metcalf
WR · PIT · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR42
ADP rank: WR22
Projected pts: 70.6
Gap vs ADP: −20 spots
Model WR42 · ADP WR22 (overvalued by 20 spots)
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB21
ADP rank: QB2
Projected pts: 117.4
Gap vs ADP: −19 spots
Model QB21 · ADP QB2 (overvalued by 19 spots)
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR · WAS · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR56
ADP rank: WR37
Projected pts: 54.9
Gap vs ADP: −19 spots
Model WR56 · ADP WR37 (overvalued by 19 spots)
Mike Evans
WR · SF · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR36
ADP rank: WR18
Projected pts: 79.2
Gap vs ADP: −18 spots
Model WR36 · ADP WR18 (overvalued by 18 spots)
Alvin Kamara
RB · NO · ▼ BUST
Model rank: RB32
ADP rank: RB16
Projected pts: 71.6
Gap vs ADP: −16 spots
Model RB32 · ADP RB16 (overvalued by 16 spots)
Justin Fields
QB · KC · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB31
ADP rank: QB15
Projected pts: 76.3
Gap vs ADP: −16 spots
Model QB31 · ADP QB15 (overvalued by 16 spots)
David Njoku
TE · CLE · ▼ BUST
Model rank: TE25
ADP rank: TE10
Projected pts: 52.0
Gap vs ADP: −15 spots
Model TE25 · ADP TE10 (overvalued by 15 spots)
Xavier Legette
WR · CAR · ▼ BUST
Model rank: WR70
ADP rank: WR55
Projected pts: 40.7
Gap vs ADP: −15 spots
Model WR70 · ADP WR55 (overvalued by 15 spots)
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB · ▼ BUST
Model rank: QB20
ADP rank: QB7
Projected pts: 118.2
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model QB20 · ADP QB7 (overvalued by 13 spots)
Evan Engram
TE · DEN · ▼ BUST
Model rank: TE21
ADP rank: TE8
Projected pts: 56.7
Gap vs ADP: −13 spots
Model TE21 · ADP TE8 (overvalued by 13 spots)
Why trust these calls?
In 2025 walk-forward testing, the model flagged Brian Thomas Jr. as a bust — he was going ADP #13 (WR6-ish consensus) and our model had him overall #41. He finished the season at overall rank #102 with 124 points across 15 games played — a real, non-injury bust. It also correctly flagged Bucky Irving (ADP #16 → actual RB#40) and flagged Isiah Pacheco (ADP #58 → actual RB#41). Busts are harder to call than sleepers because injuries dominate the worst outcomes — but model-flagged busts consistently underperformed even when healthy.
Methodology is public — walk-forward validation, conformal quantile regression for calibrated 80% intervals, depth-chart aware, no leakage. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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