2026 Fantasy RB Rankings

The top 50 RBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Running back is the hardest position for projections: committee usage, injury rates, and coaching changes add noise. Our depth-chart-aware model still posts a 37% MAE edge over ADP for RBs.

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
RB1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	205.2	101–310	4	LOW
RB2	Bijan Robinson	ATL	183.1	82–284	2	LOW
RB3	Saquon Barkley	PHI	167.1	50–284	3	LOW
RB4	James Cook	BUF	164.7	59–270	32	LOW
RB5	Christian McCaffrey	SF	164.4	14–314	10	LOW
RB6	Derrick Henry	BAL	163.1	46–280	11	LOW
RB7	Jonathan Taylor	IND	161.5	26–297	22	LOW
RB8	De'Von Achane	MIA	160.9	79–243	17	LOW
RB9	Chase Brown	CIN	141.3	56–226	22	LOW
RB10	Ashton Jeanty	LV	132.6	0–269	10	LOW
RB11	Kyren Williams	LAR	130.7	41–220	25	LOW
RB12	Bucky Irving	TB	126.9	30–224	16	LOW
RB13	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	115.8	32–200	44	LOW
RB14	Kenneth Walker III	KC	113.9	40–187	42	LOW
RB15	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	110.6	20–201	74	LOW
RB16	Josh Jacobs	GB	109.8	0–220	16	LOW
RB17	Breece Hall	NYJ	104.0	27–182	34	LOW
RB18	D'Andre Swift	CHI	103.0	4–202	61	LOW
RB19	Javonte Williams	DAL	101.8	15–189	99	LOW
RB20	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	98.5	9–188	96	LOW
RB21	Rico Dowdle	PIT	84.8	0–175	140	LOW
RB22	Omarion Hampton	LAC	83.1	0–198	32	MED
RB23	Isiah Pacheco	DET	82.3	10–155	58	LOW
RB24	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	80.8	0–173	111	LOW
RB25	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	80.2	0–194	50	MED
RB26	Tony Pollard	TEN	79.3	0–161	64	LOW
RB27	David Montgomery	HOU	78.9	0–171	58	MED
RB28	RJ Harvey	DEN	77.1	0–194	54	MED
RB29	Brian Robinson	ATL	74.5	0–161	100	LOW
RB30	Travis Etienne	NO	73.8	0–181	90	MED
RB31	Jaylen Warren	PIT	72.6	0–163	80	MED
RB32	Alvin Kamara	NO	71.6	0–175	38	MED
RB33	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	71.5	0–164	108	MED
RB34	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	70.9	0–169	95	MED
RB35	Kareem Hunt	KC	70.0	0–145	188	LOW
RB36	Jordan Mason	MIN	69.4	0–152	98	MED
RB37	Jeremiyah Love	ARI	67.0	0–276	0	MED
RB38	Aaron Jones	MIN	62.9	0–143	64	MED
RB39	Tyjae Spears	TEN	60.7	0–136	133	MED
RB40	Cam Skattebo	NYG	60.0	0–146	106	MED
RB41	Tyler Allgeier	ARI	59.3	0–137	151	MED
RB42	James Conner	ARI	58.1	0–165	50	MED
RB43	Ray Davis	BUF	54.8	0–135	143	MED
RB44	Rachaad White	WAS	53.9	0–123	130	MED
RB45	Tank Bigsby	PHI	53.7	0–127	118	MED
RB46	Kenneth Gainwell	TB	52.9	0–148	—	MED
RB47	Davon Booth	CLE	50.0	0–258	0	MED
RB48	TJ Harden	CLE	50.0	0–258	0	MED
RB49	Jerome Ford	WAS	48.7	0–138	132	MED
RB50	Coleman Bennett	CHI	47.9	0–256	0	MED

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 6% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 57% — roughly 9× more variance explained.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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