2026 Fantasy RB Rankings

The top 50 RBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Running back is the hardest position for projections: committee usage, injury rates, and coaching changes add noise. Our depth-chart-aware model still posts a 38% MAE edge over ADP for RBs.

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
RB1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	221.1	110–333	4	LOW
RB2	Bijan Robinson	ATL	192.6	78–307	2	LOW
RB3	Christian McCaffrey	SF	186.0	6–366	10	MED
RB4	Saquon Barkley	PHI	182.3	35–329	3	LOW
RB5	James Cook	BUF	180.4	62–299	32	LOW
RB6	Jonathan Taylor	IND	179.3	48–310	22	LOW
RB7	Derrick Henry	BAL	171.4	37–306	11	LOW
RB8	De'Von Achane	MIA	169.3	71–267	17	LOW
RB9	Kyren Williams	LA	160.9	45–277	25	LOW
RB10	Chase Brown	CIN	147.9	42–253	22	LOW
RB11	Josh Jacobs	GB	143.4	44–243	16	LOW
RB12	Tony Pollard	TEN	138.0	53–223	64	LOW
RB13	D'Andre Swift	CHI	135.5	47–224	61	LOW
RB14	Bucky Irving	TB	128.6	17–240	16	MED
RB15	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	127.4	58–196	44	LOW
RB16	Ashton Jeanty	LV	127.2	0–262	10	MED
RB17	Travis Etienne	JAX	126.0	18–234	90	MED
RB18	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	123.8	40–207	42	LOW
RB19	Breece Hall	NYJ	119.4	40–199	34	LOW
RB20	Javonte Williams	DAL	116.2	24–208	99	LOW
RB21	David Montgomery	DET	112.4	27–197	58	LOW
RB22	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	108.2	19–198	74	MED
RB23	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	95.1	13–178	111	MED
RB24	Isiah Pacheco	KC	94.9	7–183	58	MED
RB25	Alvin Kamara	NO	94.0	0–217	38	MED
RB26	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	93.9	12–176	108	MED
RB27	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	93.3	11–175	96	MED
RB28	Rico Dowdle	CAR	88.3	0–182	140	MED
RB29	Kareem Hunt	KC	80.2	0–165	188	MED
RB30	Brian Robinson	SF	78.1	0–169	100	MED
RB31	Jaylen Warren	PIT	73.9	0–176	80	MED
RB32	Kenneth Gainwell	PIT	72.5	0–171	—	MED
RB33	Rachaad White	TB	72.3	2–142	130	MED
RB34	Omarion Hampton	LAC	70.9	0–192	32	MED
RB35	Jordan Mason	MIN	69.9	0–156	98	MED
RB36	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	69.5	0–153	151	MED
RB37	Aaron Jones	MIN	68.0	0–170	64	MED
RB38	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	67.0	0–195	50	HIGH
RB39	RJ Harvey	DEN	66.7	0–193	54	HIGH
RB40	James Conner	ARI	63.3	0–178	50	HIGH
RB41	Jerome Ford	CLE	62.9	0–151	132	MED
RB42	Nick Chubb	HOU	61.6	0–137	140	MED
RB43	Tyjae Spears	TEN	60.3	0–133	133	MED
RB44	Najee Harris	LAC	59.6	0–164	104	MED
RB45	Ty Johnson	BUF	57.9	0–129	—	MED
RB46	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	57.4	0–178	95	HIGH
RB47	Devin Singletary	NYG	54.3	0–124	—	MED
RB48	Michael Carter	ARI	53.9	0–128	—	MED
RB49	Cam Skattebo	NYG	52.2	0–147	106	HIGH
RB50	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	WAS	49.7	0–117	184	MED

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 9% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 59% — a 7× improvement.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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