2026 Fantasy RB Rankings

The top 50 RBs for 2026 half-PPR leagues, ranked by our machine-learning model's projected fantasy points. Each projection comes with a calibrated 80% confidence interval — meaning 83% of actual outcomes fell inside our intervals in 2025 walk-forward testing.

Running back is the hardest position for projections: committee usage, injury rates, and coaching changes add noise. Our depth-chart-aware model still posts a 37% MAE edge over ADP for RBs.

Rank	Player	Team	Proj Pts	80% CI	ADP	Risk
RB1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	207.7	111–304	4	LOW
RB2	Bijan Robinson	ATL	184.5	86–283	2	LOW
RB3	Saquon Barkley	PHI	166.9	46–288	3	LOW
RB4	Christian McCaffrey	SF	166.0	18–314	10	LOW
RB5	James Cook	BUF	163.5	58–269	32	LOW
RB6	Derrick Henry	BAL	162.7	36–290	11	LOW
RB7	Jonathan Taylor	IND	162.4	24–301	22	LOW
RB8	De'Von Achane	MIA	161.3	76–246	17	LOW
RB9	Chase Brown	CIN	144.4	55–233	22	LOW
RB10	Kyren Williams	LAR	132.6	33–232	25	LOW
RB11	Bucky Irving	TB	128.2	29–227	16	LOW
RB12	Ashton Jeanty	LV	127.0	0–262	10	LOW
RB13	Kenneth Walker III	KC	115.8	38–194	42	LOW
RB14	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	115.2	29–202	44	LOW
RB15	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	111.8	21–203	74	LOW
RB16	Josh Jacobs	GB	109.5	0–219	16	LOW
RB17	D'Andre Swift	CHI	102.0	0–206	61	LOW
RB18	Breece Hall	NYJ	101.9	33–171	34	LOW
RB19	Javonte Williams	DAL	101.2	22–181	99	LOW
RB20	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	98.6	18–179	96	LOW
RB21	Isiah Pacheco	DET	91.4	12–171	58	LOW
RB22	Rico Dowdle	PIT	86.4	0–174	140	LOW
RB23	David Montgomery	HOU	83.1	0–184	58	MED
RB24	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	80.7	0–165	111	LOW
RB25	Tony Pollard	TEN	80.3	2–158	64	LOW
RB26	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	79.7	0–198	50	MED
RB27	RJ Harvey	DEN	76.9	0–197	54	MED
RB28	Jaylen Warren	PIT	76.8	0–165	80	MED
RB29	Brian Robinson	ATL	76.2	0–163	100	MED
RB30	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	75.1	0–170	108	MED
RB31	Omarion Hampton	LAC	74.2	0–191	32	MED
RB32	Alvin Kamara	NO	71.8	0–179	38	MED
RB33	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	70.7	0–184	95	MED
RB34	Travis Etienne	NO	70.5	0–167	90	MED
RB35	Jordan Mason	MIN	70.1	0–148	98	MED
RB36	Kareem Hunt	KC	69.4	0–145	188	LOW
RB37	Aaron Jones	MIN	66.3	0–151	64	MED
RB38	Tyler Allgeier	ARI	60.0	0–129	151	MED
RB39	Cam Skattebo	NYG	57.9	0–141	106	MED
RB40	Jeremiyah Love	ARI	57.8	0–257	0	MED
RB41	James Conner	ARI	56.9	0–168	50	MED
RB42	Tyjae Spears	TEN	56.9	0–124	133	MED
RB43	Kenneth Gainwell	TB	55.6	0–150	—	MED
RB44	Ray Davis	BUF	53.2	0–138	143	MED
RB45	Tank Bigsby	PHI	52.3	0–126	118	MED
RB46	Rachaad White	WAS	51.0	0–116	130	MED
RB47	Davon Booth	CLE	50.4	0–258	0	MED
RB48	TJ Harden	CLE	50.4	0–258	0	MED
RB49	Coleman Bennett	CHI	48.6	0–256	0	MED
RB50	Le'Veon Moss	MIA	48.5	0–256	0	MED

What the model gets right that ADP misses

ADP is a wisdom-of-the-crowd signal — it reflects what drafters collectively think, not what actually happens. In our 2022-2025 walk-forward validation, consensus ADP explained only 6% of actual fantasy-point variance. Our model explained 57% — roughly 9× more variance explained.

The biggest gaps between model and ADP are surfaced on our Top Sleepers and Top Busts pages. The full War Room shows every player with filtering, VBD, scarcity, and draft-tracking.

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