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2026 Fantasy Sleepers: Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our model ranks above current ADP. These are model-vs-market disagreements to investigate, not promises that a player will outperform.
Quick answerA 2026 sleeper is a player the current OverADP model ranks materially above the draft market. The gap can reveal an inexpensive path to production, but it is a research signal, not a hit guarantee. Check the player range, current news, roster fit, and the cost of waiting.
By OverADP ResearchUpdated September 23, 2026Half-PPR
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 Signal: current model rank vs current ADP
🔄 Updated: September 23, 2026
The Top 15
Troy Franklin
WR · DEN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR56
ADP rank: WR79
Projected pts: 95.6
Gap vs ADP: +23 spots
Model WR56 · ADP WR79 (model ranks him 23 spots higher)
Tre Tucker
WR · LV · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR39
ADP rank: WR58
Projected pts: 121.6
Gap vs ADP: +19 spots
Model WR39 · ADP WR58 (model ranks him 19 spots higher)
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR · JAX · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR20
ADP rank: WR35
Projected pts: 151.5
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model WR20 · ADP WR35 (model ranks him 15 spots higher)
Carnell Tate
WR · TEN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR22
ADP rank: WR37
Projected pts: 148.2
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model WR22 · ADP WR37 (model ranks him 15 spots higher)
Dylan Sampson
RB · CLE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB45
ADP rank: RB60
Projected pts: 87.8
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model RB45 · ADP RB60 (model ranks him 15 spots higher)
Dontayvion Wicks
WR · PHI · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR67
ADP rank: WR81
Projected pts: 82.7
Gap vs ADP: +14 spots
Model WR67 · ADP WR81 (model ranks him 14 spots higher)
Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB25
ADP rank: RB38
Projected pts: 124.7
Gap vs ADP: +13 spots
Model RB25 · ADP RB38 (model ranks him 13 spots higher)
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB · NYG · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB41
ADP rank: RB54
Projected pts: 96.5
Gap vs ADP: +13 spots
Model RB41 · ADP RB54 (model ranks him 13 spots higher)
K.C. Concepcion
WR · CLE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR41
ADP rank: WR53
Projected pts: 121.0
Gap vs ADP: +12 spots
Model WR41 · ADP WR53 (model ranks him 12 spots higher)
Tre Harris
WR · LAC · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR69
ADP rank: WR80
Projected pts: 80.1
Gap vs ADP: +11 spots
Model WR69 · ADP WR80 (model ranks him 11 spots higher)
Malik Washington
WR · MIA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR57
ADP rank: WR66
Projected pts: 94.9
Gap vs ADP: +9 spots
Model WR57 · ADP WR66 (model ranks him 9 spots higher)
Jadarian Price
RB · SEA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB21
ADP rank: RB29
Projected pts: 139.4
Gap vs ADP: +8 spots
Model RB21 · ADP RB29 (model ranks him 8 spots higher)
Jerry Jeudy
WR · CLE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR48
ADP rank: WR56
Projected pts: 109.2
Gap vs ADP: +8 spots
Model WR48 · ADP WR56 (model ranks him 8 spots higher)
Jalen Nailor
WR · LV · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR59
ADP rank: WR67
Projected pts: 92.2
Gap vs ADP: +8 spots
Model WR59 · ADP WR67 (model ranks him 8 spots higher)
Adonai Mitchell
WR · NYJ · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR64
ADP rank: WR72
Projected pts: 87.6
Gap vs ADP: +8 spots
Model WR64 · ADP WR72 (model ranks him 8 spots higher)
What this signal means
A sleeper label measures a current rank gap: the point model values the player more highly than the draft market does. It can surface changing roles, prior production, depth-chart movement, or a cheap price. It does not estimate a hit probability, and the model can be wrong. Use the projection range, roster fit, and current news alongside the label.
Methodology is public: season-by-season tests, 80% ranges, and current depth-chart context. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank: they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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