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2026 Fantasy Sleepers — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our model ranks above current ADP. These are model-vs-market disagreements to investigate, not promises that a player will outperform.
Quick answerA 2026 sleeper is a player the current OverADP model ranks materially above the draft market. The gap can reveal an inexpensive path to production, but it is a research signal—not a hit guarantee. Check the player range, current news, roster fit, and the cost of waiting.
By OverADP ResearchUpdated August 27, 2026Half-PPR
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 Signal: current model rank vs current ADP
🔄 Updated: August 27, 2026
The Top 15
Jerry Jeudy
WR · CLE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR24
ADP rank: WR53
Projected pts: 126.8
Gap vs ADP: +29 spots
Model WR24 · ADP WR53 (undervalued by 29 spots)
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR · TEN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR22
ADP rank: WR45
Projected pts: 129.1
Gap vs ADP: +23 spots
Model WR22 · ADP WR45 (undervalued by 23 spots)
Troy Franklin
WR · DEN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR47
ADP rank: WR70
Projected pts: 89.2
Gap vs ADP: +23 spots
Model WR47 · ADP WR70 (undervalued by 23 spots)
Zach Charbonnet
RB · SEA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB19
ADP rank: RB41
Projected pts: 148.3
Gap vs ADP: +22 spots
Model RB19 · ADP RB41 (undervalued by 22 spots)
Romeo Doubs
WR · NE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR28
ADP rank: WR50
Projected pts: 120.5
Gap vs ADP: +22 spots
Model WR28 · ADP WR50 (undervalued by 22 spots)
Dontayvion Wicks
WR · PHI · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR50
ADP rank: WR69
Projected pts: 84.8
Gap vs ADP: +19 spots
Model WR50 · ADP WR69 (undervalued by 19 spots)
Tre Tucker
WR · LV · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR36
ADP rank: WR54
Projected pts: 111.5
Gap vs ADP: +18 spots
Model WR36 · ADP WR54 (undervalued by 18 spots)
Malik Washington
WR · MIA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR43
ADP rank: WR61
Projected pts: 97.9
Gap vs ADP: +18 spots
Model WR43 · ADP WR61 (undervalued by 18 spots)
Michael Wilson
WR · ARI · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR19
ADP rank: WR36
Projected pts: 135.9
Gap vs ADP: +17 spots
Model WR19 · ADP WR36 (undervalued by 17 spots)
Sam Darnold
QB · SEA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: QB4
ADP rank: QB20
Projected pts: 264.0
Gap vs ADP: +16 spots
Model QB4 · ADP QB20 (undervalued by 16 spots)
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: QB2
ADP rank: QB17
Projected pts: 279.2
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model QB2 · ADP QB17 (undervalued by 15 spots)
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB · NYG · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB33
ADP rank: RB48
Projected pts: 100.8
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model RB33 · ADP RB48 (undervalued by 15 spots)
Jordan Addison
WR · MIN · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: WR25
ADP rank: WR40
Projected pts: 123.4
Gap vs ADP: +15 spots
Model WR25 · ADP WR40 (undervalued by 15 spots)
Kenyon Sadiq
TE · NYJ · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: TE6
ADP rank: TE20
Projected pts: 124.4
Gap vs ADP: +14 spots
Model TE6 · ADP TE20 (undervalued by 14 spots)
Tyler Allgeier
RB · ARI · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: RB32
ADP rank: RB45
Projected pts: 105.4
Gap vs ADP: +13 spots
Model RB32 · ADP RB45 (undervalued by 13 spots)
What this signal means
A sleeper label measures a current rank gap: the point model values the player more highly than the draft market does. It can surface changing roles, prior production, depth-chart movement, or a cheap price. It does not estimate a hit probability, and the model can be wrong — use the projection range, roster fit, and current news alongside the label.
Methodology is public — chronological point-model tests, split-conformal 80%-target ranges, and current depth-chart context. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
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