Home / 2026 / Top Sleepers
▲ 2026 Sleepers
2026 Fantasy Sleepers — Model vs ADP
The 2026 players our machine-learning model ranks well above consensus ADP. These are the largest model-vs-crowd disagreements — the spots where our walk-forward history suggests ADP is wrong.
📊 Source: walk-forward ML projections
📅 Scoring: half-PPR
🎯 2025 hit rate: Drake Maye ADP 128 → QB#2
🔄 Updated: April 17, 2026
The Top 15
Matthew Stafford
QB · LA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #13
ADP rank: #169
Projected pts: 172.4
Gap vs ADP: +156
Model rank #13 vs ADP #169.0 — SLEEPER
Sam Darnold
QB · SEA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #55
ADP rank: #183
Projected pts: 116.7
Gap vs ADP: +128
Model rank #55 vs ADP #183.0 — SLEEPER
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #19
ADP rank: #139
Projected pts: 154.8
Gap vs ADP: +120
Model rank #19 vs ADP #140.0 — SLEEPER
Drake Maye
QB · NE · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #11
ADP rank: #127
Projected pts: 176.0
Gap vs ADP: +116
Model rank #11 vs ADP #128.0 — SLEEPER
Jordan Love
QB · GB · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #19
ADP rank: #131
Projected pts: 154.8
Gap vs ADP: +111
Model rank #19 vs ADP #131.0 — SLEEPER
Bryce Young
QB · CAR · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #57
ADP rank: #165
Projected pts: 115.8
Gap vs ADP: +108
Model rank #57 vs ADP #165.0 — SLEEPER
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · MIA · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #47
ADP rank: #154
Projected pts: 123.0
Gap vs ADP: +107
Model rank #47 vs ADP #154.0 — SLEEPER
Aaron Rodgers
QB · PIT · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #80
ADP rank: #186
Projected pts: 94.5
Gap vs ADP: +106
Model rank #80 vs ADP #186.0 — SLEEPER
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #3
ADP rank: #106
Projected pts: 193.2
Gap vs ADP: +103
Model rank #3 vs ADP #106.0 — SLEEPER
C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #38
ADP rank: #132
Projected pts: 134.5
Gap vs ADP: +94
Model rank #38 vs ADP #132.0 — SLEEPER
Justin Herbert
QB · LAC · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #24
ADP rank: #115
Projected pts: 145.9
Gap vs ADP: +91
Model rank #24 vs ADP #115.0 — SLEEPER
Kareem Hunt
RB · KC · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #98
ADP rank: #188
Projected pts: 80.2
Gap vs ADP: +89
Model rank #98 vs ADP #188.0 — SLEEPER
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR · NYG · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #97
ADP rank: #181
Projected pts: 80.7
Gap vs ADP: +84
Model rank #97 vs ADP #182.0 — SLEEPER
Brock Purdy
QB · SF · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #27
ADP rank: #110
Projected pts: 143.2
Gap vs ADP: +83
Model rank #27 vs ADP #110.0 — SLEEPER
Romeo Doubs
WR · GB · ▲ SLEEPER
Model rank: #108
ADP rank: #190
Projected pts: 73.7
Gap vs ADP: +82
Model rank #108 vs ADP #190.0 — SLEEPER
Why trust these calls?
In our 2025 walk-forward backtest (train through 2024, predict 2025), the model flagged Drake Maye as a sleeper at ADP #128. He finished QB#2 with 416 fantasy points — 126 rank spots above where he was being drafted. It also flagged Matthew Stafford (ADP #169 → actual QB#3), Sam Darnold (ADP #183 → actual QB#21), and Trevor Lawrence (ADP #140 → actual QB#6). ADP is the wisdom of the crowd, but the crowd is slow to update on depth-chart changes, coaching hires, and free-agent moves — which is exactly where our model has the biggest edge.
Methodology is public — walk-forward validation, conformal quantile regression for calibrated 80% intervals, depth-chart aware, no leakage. Read the full model methodology or open the free draft board.
How "sleeper" and "bust" are defined here
A sleeper is a player whose model rank is meaningfully higher than ADP rank — they're being drafted later than we think they should be. A bust is the opposite: drafted earlier than the model thinks is justified. We rank by the absolute size of the gap. Players with no ADP (undrafted) are excluded.
Related Rankings
The Draft Tool
Get the Full Model in Your Draft Room
Every projection, 80% confidence interval, risk tier, and sleeper/bust call — live, in a single-page draft command center. Free to browse. $6.99 for a single draft, $24.99 for the full season.
ENTER THE WAR ROOM →